Empirical Studies in Consumption, House Prices and the Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts
von Barot, Bharat
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The study finds that each of the primary components of wealth has an equal role for consumer¿s expenditure. In addition the study finds significant effects from employment and interest rates. The importance of the simulations and their usefulness to Swedish policy makers is discussed. Both ex-post and ex ante forecasts using the model gives reasonable results.In order to facilitate comparisons between Sweden and the UK we model both countries similarly using exogenous variables. The long run income elasticity for Sweden and the UK are both constrained to be equal to one. Tobins¿s q Granger causes housing investment.The study evaluates the one-year ahead forecasts by the OECD and by national institutes of GDP growth and inflation in 13 European countries. RMSE was large 1.9% for growth and 1.6% for inflation. Six (11) OECD and ten (7) institute growth forecasts records were significantly better than both naïve alternatives. There were no significant differences in accuracy between forecasts of the OECD and the institutes. Two forecasts were found to be biased and one had auto-correlated errors.
Dr. Bharat Barot is of Indian origin and with education both at Stockholm and Uppsala University. I have been working at the National Institute of Economic Research 1989-2007. The author published in International Journals in the UK, USA, Japan, Honkong and India. He wrote about 12 academic articles and work papers.
LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
0.22 x 0.15 x 0.009 m; 0.281 kg